California Air Resources Board 2022 Scoping Plan - APPENDIX J – UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS

Summary

California faces significant uncertainty in meeting its ambitious 2030 greenhouse gas reduction target, specifically regarding the potential for implementation delays in key climate policies. This analysis identifies and quantifies the risks associated with delayed deployment of renewable energy capacity and slower transportation electrification, constructing scenarios to illustrate their impact on 2030 emissions. The overall 2022 Scoping Plan is in progress, but this analysis highlights critical areas where policy interventions may be needed to mitigate risks and ensure the state remains on track for its 2030 and 2045 carbon neutrality goals.

Key Facts

Source Document

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