Long-Term Electricity Projections for Kentucky

Summary

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) conducted a study, funded in summer 2024, to project the long-term evolution of Kentucky's electricity system using the ReEDS model. The analysis explored various scenarios, revealing that the total potential for onshore wind in Kentucky ranges from 8.0 GW to 124 GW, and utility-scale solar PV potential from 228 GW to 1,076 GW, depending on siting limitations. Imposing a carbon cap to achieve a 95% CO2 reduction by 2050, starting in 2023, is projected to increase system costs by 1-10% and energy prices by 9-25%. Key findings indicate that coordination with the wider Eastern Interconnection is crucial for a least-cost mix, with islanded scenarios relying more on fossil fuels, and EPA 111 regulations are expected to phase out coal from the resource mix.

Key Facts

Source Document

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