Scenarios of Nuclear Energy Use in the United States for the 21st Century

Summary

This PNNL report analyzes scenarios for nuclear energy's role in the U.S. through the 21st century. It investigates nuclear capital costs ranging from $2600 to $6600/kW and carbon mitigation policies, including carbon taxes ($50, $100, $150/tCO2) and economy-wide net-zero targets by 2050, 2060, or 2070. Reductions in nuclear capital costs alone can lead to significant expansion, with capacities reaching 90-450 GW by 2100 in a reference scenario, reducing power sector CO2 by 30%. Combined with a $100/tCO2 carbon tax, nuclear capacity could expand to 180-720 GW by 2100, achieving 50-55% economy-wide and 80-90% electricity sector emission reductions. Net-zero targets require carbon taxes peaking around $300/tCO2 and could see nuclear capacities ranging from 210 to 850 GW by 2100, while also increasing total electricity demand by about 30% by the end of the century.

Key Facts

Source Document

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