Assumptions and advantages of diagnosing climate change at global warming levels

Summary

This research from Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory validates the use of Global Warming Levels (GWLs) as a reliable control for assessing climate change, which is crucial for meeting targets like the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C and 2°C goals. By analyzing 33 extreme climate indices across CMIP5 and CMIP6 model archives, the study found that climate responses at GWLs of 1°C, 1.5°C, 2°C, 3°C, and 4°C are largely independent of the emissions scenario. While most indices showed very low sensitivity to different climate sensitivities (less than 30% of land area with significant differences for most indices), some temperature-related indices showed significant correlation with Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) over upwards of 40% of land area. This justification for GWL usage aims to improve the accuracy of future climate predictions from 1850 to 2100 and support more effective regional resiliency planning.

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Source Document

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