Modeling Gray Zone Tactics Used Against Green Energy Supply Chains

Summary

This Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory report models the impact of state-backed gray zone tactics, particularly from China, on green energy supply chains, focusing on electric vehicle (EV) batteries. The study found that U.S. EV battery demand is projected to outpace supply by 14% by 2040, even without disruptions. A scenario simulating an abrupt cutoff of key refined materials and manufactured batteries from China in 2028 resulted in a 29% reduction in battery availability by 2040, preventing 6 million EVs from being produced over 12 years. China currently dominates critical mineral processing, accounting for 60% of the world's lithium, cobalt, and aluminum, and 90% of overall critical mineral refinement. The report suggests mitigation strategies such as diversifying supply sources, developing domestic refining capacity, and advancing battery technologies to reduce reliance on scarce materials.

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Source Document

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