Core Model Proposal #399 Updating the SSP Database (v3.0) (Population, GDP, and Labor Force) and Labor Productivity (KLEM)

Summary

This Core Model Proposal (CMP #399) updates the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) by integrating the latest Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) database version 3.0.1 (released 2024), replacing the older 2013 version. The update reconciles historical GDP data, utilizing FAOSTAT data updated to 2023. Model projections indicate a higher world population, with SSP2 showing a 712 million increase by 2100, and a higher 2015 world GDP of 82 trillion 2015$, up from 75.4 trillion 2015$. However, global per capita GDP is projected to decrease by 7% to 30% across various SSP scenarios by 2100, influencing lower energy demand but higher food consumption in the model's outputs. The proposal outlines 32 validation scenarios and notes that carbon prices in SSP4 could reach approximately 7000 1990$ per tC by 2100 in certain RCP 2.6 scenarios.

Key Facts

Source Document

https://example-government.gov/policy-document-link