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United States2023-04en

Climate Intervention Risk Framework White Paper

Summary

This white paper, published by Sandia National Laboratories in April 2023, introduces a structured, three-step, risk-based framework for analyzing the potential deployment and consequences of climate interventions. The framework is designed to help government agencies like DoS, DTRA, and DARPA understand the risks associated with geoengineering, given the uncertainties in future climate, technological, and geopolitical conditions. It outlines significant potential costs, such as over US$100 billion per year for stratospheric aerosol injections requiring 100,000 missions annually, and references IPCC scenarios where global warming could be kept below 1.5°C. The framework aims to provide a platform for integrating new assumptions, data, and modeling outputs to inform policy decisions.

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