Renewable Energy and Efficiency Technologies in Scenarios of U.S. Decarbonization in Two Types of Models: Comparison of GCAM Modeling and Sector-Specific Modeling

Summary

This report from NREL and PNNL compares the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), an integrated multisector model, with three U.S. sector-specific models (ReEDS for electricity, TEMPO for transportation, and Scout for buildings) to understand their differences and complementarities in U.S. decarbonization scenarios. The study explores pathways to achieve targets like 95% power sector CO2 reduction by 2035 and net-zero emissions by 2050. Key findings include total U.S. electricity generation ranging from 5,800 TWh to 7,800 TWh by 2050 in various scenarios, with variable renewable energy (VRE) generation reaching up to 84% in ReEDS's electrification scenario. Passenger vehicle tailpipe CO2 emissions are projected to decrease by 88-103 MMT by 2050 under a 2.6 W/m2 consistent carbon price, which starts at $70/tCO2 in 2025. By 2050, a 100% EV sales mandate by 2035 could result in 250-344 million battery electric vehicles in the fleet.

Key Facts

Source Document

https://example-government.gov/policy-document-link