Evaluation of Global Climate Models for Use in Energy Analysis

Summary

This NREL technical report, published in August 2024, evaluates Global Climate Models (GCMs) from CMIP6 for use in energy analysis, addressing the challenge of selecting appropriate climate inputs amidst increasing climate variability. Out of 33 GCMs surveyed, 13 were selected and their historical skill against 40-year (1980-2019) reference datasets (20 years for irradiance) was assessed, along with their projections through mid-century (up to 2059) for SSP2 4.5 and SSP5 8.5 scenarios. The study found varied performance, noting that some GCMs showed temperature differences greater than 1°C between scenarios, while others showed less than 0.4°C. Projections for wind resources varied significantly, with one model showing a 1% decrease and another a 5% decrease by mid-century, and solar resources showing changes between -2% and +2.5% across CONUS. The report provides a reference to facilitate the selection of climate models and scenarios for future energy system analyses.

Key Facts

Source Document

https://example-government.gov/policy-document-link