Projected EU emissions in 2040 A comparison of assumptions and sector results between the EU Impact Assessment 2040 and the UBA Pathways 2050 scenarios

Summary

This study analyzes EU-wide greenhouse gas reduction scenarios for 2040 to identify differences in assumptions and sector results between various models. It compares four scenarios from the European Commission's 2040 Impact Assessment with three from the UBA Pathways 2050 project, conducting both overall and sectoral analyses. The findings reveal that for most sectors, scenario differences stem from varying assumptions, with energy-related sectors showing a clear path involving energy reduction, efficiency, and renewable shifts, while other sectors exhibit greater variability.

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