Modeling Distributed Generation in California

Summary

The California Energy Commission (CEC) and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) collaborated to forecast distributed energy resource (DER) adoption in California through 2040 using the dGen model. The model predicts a significant growth in solar photovoltaic (PV) and paired storage capacity, with cumulative solar PV reaching 29,191 MW and storage reaching 4,766 MW by 2040, up from 14,400 MW and under 800 MW respectively in 2022. This growth is driven by a projected 30 percent increase in first-year monthly residential savings between 2024 and 2040 and a decrease in residential PV costs from approximately $3,300/kW in 2022 to $1,654/kW in 2040. However, a drop-off in new installations is anticipated after the Federal Investment Tax Credit (ITC) phases out in 2034.

Key Facts

Source Document

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