Agent-based Modeling for the Multi-objective Optimization of Energy Production Pathways: Integrated Techno-Economics and Life Cycle Assessment

Summary

This final technical report details a study that used advanced modeling to evaluate and optimize purpose-grown bioenergy feedstocks for Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) production in the United States. The U.S. aims for 3 billion gallons of SAF by 2030 and 35 billion gallons annually by 2050, requiring a 50% emissions reduction. While miscanthus and sorghum show promise with competitive costs ($3.21-$4.15/gallon) and emissions (1.3-35.4 gCO2-eq MJ-1), algae-based SAF is significantly more expensive ($9.32-$16.42/gallon) and offers only a ~20% emissions reduction. Achieving 25 billion gallons of SAF annually would require 5.3% to 11.6% of contiguous U.S. land, depending on optimization criteria. Agent-based modeling suggests that current land conversion rates would only yield 10-14.5 billion gallons over 30 years, highlighting the need for significant incentives and education to meet the ambitious SAF targets.

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